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UNIVERSITY OF BUCHAREST
FACULTY OF PHYSICS Guest
2026-06-11 23:58 |
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Conference: Bucharest University Faculty of Physics 2026 Meeting
Section: Atmosphere and Earth Science; Environment Protection
Title:
Estimating Atlantic Ocean circulation variability
from subsurface temperature and salinity observational data
Authors:
Andrei ȘTEFAN (1), Mihai DIMA (1), Denis-Răducu NICHITA (1,2)
*
Affiliation:
1) University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Bucharest, Romania
2) “Horia Hulubei” National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Bucharest-Măgurele, Romania
E-mail
as.stefan79@gmail.com; mihai.dima@unibuc.ro; denisnichita@gmail.com
Keywords:
Global Warming, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, temperature, salinity
Abstract:
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a critical component of the climate system, with planetary scale impact. It could be weakening by anthropogenic forcing, but the identification of a potential slowdown of this ocean circulation was limited by the short direct measurements available. While indirect observed sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions indicate that AMOC have been weakening since decades, in numerical simulation a significant slowdown is expected latter during this century.
Given the discrepancy between reconstructed data and model simulations, it is still uncertain whether the AMOC is weakening or not. To this end, in this study, we performed principal component analysis on observed Atlantic subsurface temperature and salinity fields. Through analogy with previous AMOC reconstructions and global climate models simulations we identified two modes related to AMOC variations. Whereas one is marked by a long-term weakening trend since 1970s, the other is dominated by multidecadal fluctuations. Therefore, observed subsurface data indicate that AMOC has been weakening since several decades, in line with surface reconstructions.
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